The fact of the matter is that Boomers and The Silent Generation have a stranglehold on the LDS church. IMO any Generation X is hand picked by them likely because they push the Boomer/Silents’s narrative. Regardless, Generation X is a minority in the Q70 right now. There isn’t a single Millennial in any of the Q70’s.
It will be be over 15-20 years until Boomers like Dallin H Oaks, Jeffery R. Holland, and David A. Bednar have passed away. Until then, the Generation Xers in leadership are expected to push the Silent and Boomer Generations’s narrative, which means no real change will happen. Things will more-or-less stay exactly the same. There will be no major steps to address things like sexism, homophobia, or racism. Any little change, like rebranding home/visiting teaching, will continue to be paraded as a revelation from God.
Even if the Generation Xers did secretly hold opinions that the LDS church should take drastic steps they don’t express it in places where it counts. If LDS Generation X leaders had any courage and integrity they would publicly call out the destructive beliefs and behavior that are normalized by the Boomer and Silent Generations. However, the difference between holding an opinion that things should change -but not doing anything to make the change- and not holding that opinion is nothing; in both cases nothing changes. So why don’t the men who may or may not hold this dissent express it? Frankly, they live a cushy lives as yes-men. They make $120,000 (plus living expenses and major perks like tuition for their whole family) every year to essentially be revered as demi-gods in their community. That alone would make it tough to step out of line. In addition to that, they would undoubtedly be punished on an international stage if they spoke out. Many people already even point to Uchtdorf being removed from the first presidency as evidence of that.
Here is my predictions of how the next 20 years is going to go:
I don’t think meaningful change will happen in the next 2 decades. The Silent and Boomer generations will continue to be sexist, racist, and homophobic or make excuses for their past condoning of it. The guys who have prophethood next are Dallin “top 10 homophobes” Oaks, M. Russell “women shouldn’t talk too much in council meetings” Ballard, Jeffrey R. “I’m furious at apostates” Holland, David A. “there are no homosexuals in the church” Bednar. During all of that time when the LDS church will cater to the Silent and Boomer generations’ sensibilities they will inadvertently be completely ignoring, alienating, or downright demonizing the beliefs, wants, and needs of the Millennial and Zoomer generations for the majority of those generations’ lives.
The LDS church’s Silent and Boomer leaders will continue to appoint people whom they feel represent their own sense of morality. As society continues to move away from sexism, homophobia, and racism, the LDS church will not; it will be left behind by the world, morally speaking. I believe this act of stagnation will largely cause the LDS church to hemorrhage moderate and progressive Millennials and Zoomers simply because they wont have a place in the LDS church anymore. The fact that the conversion and retention rates are so low is evidence that the LDS church’s product already isn’t resonating with younger generations.
M. Russell Ballard once contemptuously asked those leaving the church, “where will you go?” Luckily we have scientific studies which can show that the trend is for Millennials not to identify with any particular religious institution. Statistically speaking 53% of Millennials will leave and not join with anyone again. Anecdotally, the moderate and progressive Millennials and Zoomers who feel a draw to a religious affiliation will find refuge in either another Christian space, an Eastern tradition (such as Buddhism), or New Age beliefs.
There will still be many who still feel a connection to the Latter Day Saint movement look to Community of Christ or the Fellowship of the Remnant (Snufferites). I think that many moderates and progressives will find refuge in Community of Christ, which is LGBT affirming, encourages a diversity of thought, allows for non-literalistic belief, and conducts itself by common consent. There are conservative, “Joseph Smith wasn’t a polygamist” and “vaccines are terrible” type folks who will be at home with the Remnant fellowships.
My prediction, once Dallin H. Oaks becomes prophet, is that the church will continue to cling to their outdated moral beliefs and there will increasingly become hostile towards moderate and progressive folks, will continue and likely bolster purging efforts of these people, and the LDS church will become an even tighter echochamber. By this same token, DezNat beliefs will become more mainstream and normalized and will eventually give way to actual violence. The church in turn will start to cater to these people even more. If you don’t think this is possible, I highly recommend watching the video “The Alt-Right Playbook: How to Radicalize a Normie” and ask yourself where FairMormon’s “This Is The Show” series and Jeffery R. Holland’s “The Second Half of the Second Century” sermon falls under that radicalization process.
If Mormonism is going to survive, it will not be within an LDS context.
EDITS:
12/03/2020: Decided to add some more opinions based on new information. See archived version of first draft here
12/05/2020: 2nd discussion on this essay here
04/06/2021: I decided to tweak a few phrases, add some links, and create and expand some paragraphs. You can read an archived version of the second draft here
08/25/2021: I modified the last paragraph to include Jeffery R. Holland’s remarks from his “The Second Half of the Second Century” sermon as examples of how the LDS church is leaning into extremism. You can read an archived version of the third draft here